ebet

　　XINGUANYIQINGDUISHIJIEDECHONGJIJULIEERSHENYUAN，DUIRIBEN、ZHONGRIGUANXIDEYINGXIANGSHIDUOZHONG、FUZADE。ZHEIZHUYAOSHIYOULIANGDAJIBENYINSUZAOCHENGDE。QIYISHIZHIJIEYINSU，JIYIQINGCHONGJIBENSHENDETEDIAN。JIAOZHIQITAFEICHUANTONGANQUANWEIJI，QUANQIUHUATIAOJIANXIACHUANRANBINGCHUANBOXUNSU，LIEDU、SHENDU、GUANGDUDOUSHIQIANSUOWEIYOUDE。ERSHISHIJIANFASHENGDEHONGGUANBEIJING。XINGUANFASHENGZAI“BAINIANWEIYOUZHIDABIANJU”DEXINGJINGUOCHENGZHONG，YIQINGBAOFAQIANSHIJIEJIUYIJINGZAIJINGLIXUNMENG、SHENKEDEBIANHUA，RIBENGUOJIAZHANLVECHUYUZHUANXINGGUANJIANQI，ZHONGRIGUANXIMIANLINLISHIXINGBIANGE，YIQINGSHIJIQIDAOLE“BIANZHONGSHENGBIAN”“BIANSHANGJIABIAN”DEZUOYONG，SHIJIYOUBIANHUAZAINEIHAN、FANGXIANG、LIDAOSHANGCHUXIANCHENGDUBUTONGDEDIAOZHENG。

ebet　　XINGUANYIQINGCHONGJIXIA，RIBENJIZHONGRIGUANXIZOUSHIDAZHIKECONGYIXIAJIFANGMIANLAIBAWO。

一、对日本政治、政局和社会的影响

ebet　　JIEZHIMUQIAN，RIBENQUERENGANRANBINGLICHAOGUO1.5WAN，PAIQUANQIUDI33WEI，BINGSILVYUE3.99%，ZAIQUANQIUPAIDI64WEI。RIBENYIQINGXINGSHISUIYUANMEIYOUMEIOUGUOJIANEIMEYANJUN，DANRIBENYONGYOUXIANJINCHENGSHUDEYILIAOWEISHENGTIXIHEYINGJIGUANLITIZHI，ZHENGFUFANGYIGONGZUOXIAOGUOQUEMEIYOUDADAOGUOMINYUQI，SUOYIANBEINEIGEHAISHISHOUDAOLEJIAODACHONGJI，“ZHENGQUANMOQIZONGHEZHENG”KENENGTIQIANDAOLAI。JINGUANRIBENCHAOYEZHENGDANGYIQIANGDUORUO、ZIMINDANGNEIANBEIYIQIJUECHENDEJIBENGEJUSHANGWEICHUXIANBIANHUA，DANNEIGEZHICHILVMINGXIANXIAHUA，ZUIJINDIEZHI32%，CHUANGXIA“SENYOUXUEYUANCHOUWEN”YILAIDEDIERDIDIAN。

　　ANBEIDANGNEIQUANWEISHOUDAOXUERUO，WEIRAOYIQINGYINGDUIFANGANJI“HOUANBEI”SHIQIQUANLIGUISHU，PAIXIJIAOZHUFUCHUSHUIMIAN。YOUYIBAOSHOUSHILIXIAOJIYANLUNBAOKUOSHEHUAXIAOJIYANLUNSHANGSHENG，YECONGCEMIANSHUOMINGANBEIDUIQIZHENGZHIYONGDUNDEKONGZHILIXIAJIANG。RIBENGUONEIDOUZAIGUANZHUMINGNIAN9YUEZIMINDANGZONGCAIXUANJUZHIJI，ANBEISHIFOUMOUQIUZAICILIANREN。MUQIANPANDUAN，ZHEIZHONGKENENGXINGYINGDIYU50%。XIANGBIZHIXIA，RIBENSHEHUIZONGTIPINGWEN，MEIYOUCHUXIANMINCUIZHUYI、PAIWAIZHUYIGAOCHAO，ZHEIYEZAICIYINQIRENMENDUIRIBEN“TIZHIZHIMI”DEGUANZHU。

二、对日本经济造成沉重打击

　　YIQINGBAOFAQIAN，HAOCHENGZHANHOUSHISHANGZUIZHANGDEJINGQIZHOUQIJI“ANBEIJINGQI”JIUYIXUANGAOJIESHU，JINGJIKAISHIBURUXIAXINGTONGDAO，2019NIANDISIJIDUZENGZHANGZHUANZHENGWEIFU。WEICI，2019NIANDIRIBENZHENGFUCHUTAILE26WANYIRIYUANDECIJIJIHUA。YIQINGBEIJINGXIA，CHUGEGUOTONGYANGMIANLINWAIBUHUANJINGDEEHUAWAI，RIBENHAIYOULIANGDATEDINGYINSUDUIJINGJIZENGZHANGXINGCHENGYANZHONGYIZHIXIAOGUO。YISHI2019NIAN10YUETISHENGXIAOFEISHUIZHI10%，JIANGCHIXUDAYAZHANGDP60%DEGUONEIXUQIU。ERSHIDONGJINGAOYUNHUIYANQI，BUJINSHIQIANZAILIHAOXIAOSHI，ERQIEQIANQITOURUSUNSHICANZHONG。2020NIANDIYIJIDU，RIBENJINGJIZENGZHANGLVWEI-3.4%。

ebet　　NEIWAIYINSUDIEJIA，2020NIANRIBENJINGJIJIANGGEWAIJIANNAN。4YUE7RI，ANBEINEIGECHUTAILEYINGDUIYIQING、KANGXIAOTIAOCIJIJIHUA，GUIMODADAOCHUANGLISHIJILUDE108.2WANYIRIYUAN，YUEHE1WANYIMEIYUAN，ZHANDAOGDPDE20%ZUOYOU，DANCONGGEFANGMIANFANYINGKAN，RENWEIQIZHANGXIAOCUOSHIHAOSHITAIZHANG，YUANSHUINANJIEJINKE，DUANQIXIAOGUONENGFOUXUNSUSHIFANG，BIAOSHIHUAIYI。4YUE14RI，IMFYUCERIBEN2020NIANJINGJIZENGZHANGLVWEI-5.2%，RIBENGUONEIYUCEYEYUCIDAZHIXIANGDANG。

三、中日经济合作面临结构性调整，但不会出现系统性萎缩，甚至可能形成新亮点

　　ZHONGRIZHIJIANDEGEZHONG“LIAN”JIANGZHONGXINZUHE，DANHEZUOZHENGTIGUIMOJIANGJIXUBAOCHI。SHANGSHUWANYIMEIYUANDECIJIJIHUAZHONG，YOUYUE22YIMEIYUANSHIYONGYUSUOWEI“LINGBUJIANGONGYINGLIANFANGMIANDEYINGDUICUOSHI”，JIYAOBAGUANJIANCHANYEDESHENGCHANHUANJIECONGHAIWAITEBIESHIZHONGGUOZHAOHUIRIBENGUONEI。DANZHEIBIQIANZUIZHONGHENKENENGHUABUDIAO。RIBENJETRODEZUIXINDIAOCHABIAOMING，ZAIZHONGGUOHUADONGHUANANDIQUTOUZIDERIQI，YOU46%BIAOSHIJIANGWEICHIZAIHUAJINGYING。ZONGXIANGBI，ZHEIYIBILISHOUCIDIEPOLE50%，DANHENGXIANGBI，ZHONGGUORENGRANYAOYAOLINGXIAN。YIQINGCIJIXIA，GUOJIHEZUOXINGWEITIDEJINGJIANQUANYISHI、DIYUANJINGJISIWEISHANGSHENG，DANRIBEN（YIJIHANGUO）GUOTUZONGSHENBUZU，CHANYELIANHUICHESHENZHIZAIGUONEIGAO“CHANYELIANJIQUN”BUXIANSHI，SUOYIBENTUHUAZAIHENDACHENGDUSHANGYIWEIZHEQUYUHUA。ZHEIDUIZHONGRIHEZUOLAISHUOQIAQIASHIJIYU。

　　ZHONGRIHEZUODEQIANZAILIANGDIANHAIKEYICONGZHONGRIHANSANBIAN、CONGDONGBEIYAQUYUZHILIZHONGQUFAJUE。ZHONGRIHANZHAN“YI”JUCUOGEYOUQIANQIU，DANDOUTIXIANCHUZUOWEIDONGFANGGUOJIADEWENHUAGONGXING。HANRIJIAOEDUIHEZUOGOUCHENGZHENGZHIZHANGAI，DAN4YUEHANGUOYIHUIXUANJUZHONGZHIZHENGDANGHUODEYADAOXINGSHENGLI，WENZAIYINZONGTONGBUDANKEWANGBIMIANDANRENZONGTONGZHIXIARENQIGUOBANHOUSUOWEIDE“BOJIAOYA”KUNJU，ERQIEKEWEIHUANHEHANRIGUANXI、HUIFUDUIRIHEZUOYINGDELEGENGDADEGUONEIZHENGZHIKONGJIAN。

四、政治和战略上，日本对华竞争意识走强，制衡举措更加多元对照

　　ZUOWEIQUANQIUTIAOZHANDE“SIDACHIZI”，ZAIZHONGRIZHIJIANGELEIWENTIZHONG，“XINRENCHIZI”YOUQITUCHU，ERQIEZHANGQIJUGAOBUXIA。ZHAN“YI”CHUQI，ZHONGRIZAIMINJIANCENGMIANTEBIESHIDIFANGYOUCHENGZHIJIANDEHUDONGXIAOGUOLIANGHAO，DANSUIZHEYIQINGDEKUOSAN，XINGSHIFASHENGBIANHUA，RIBENYOUYIBAOSHOUSHILISHEHUAXIAOJIYANLUNYOUSUOSHANGSHENG。KANG“YI”DUIZHONGRIGUOMINGANQINGDEGAISHANZUIZHONGNENGFOUCHANSHENGLIANGXINGTUIDONGZUOYONGHAIXUYAOJIXUGUANCHA，DANZHISHAO“XINRENCHIZI”JUGAOBUXIADEJUMIANDUANQINEIHENNANNIUZHUAN。

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五、关于“新时代”中日关系的认知与构建

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　　ZHONGRIGUANXIRENGJIANGCHUYUJINGHEBINGCUNDE“XINCHANGTAI”，BICIZAIJIANCHIDUOBIANZHUYI、ZHUZHANGZIYOUMAOYI、TUIDONGQUYUHEZUODENGDUOFANGMIANCUNZAIGONGTONGLIYI，BAOCHITONGYANGLICHANG，DANYECUNZAIBUSHAOMAODUNHEFENQI。CONGRIBENGUONEIZHENGZHIKAN，“HOUANBEI”SHIQI，GENGKENENGCHUXIANRUOSHIZHENGQUAN，GUORUCI，ZHENGZHIWENDINGDU、ZHENGCELIANXUXINGKONGPAHUISHOUDAOYINGXIANG。MIANDUIFUZAJUMIAN，ZHONGGUOJIYAOZHUAJINCUJINHEZUO，YEYAOCHENWENYINGDUITIAOZHAN，YIQIEYINGJIANLIZAIZHASHIYANJIU、KEXUEYANPANDEJICHUSHANG，MUBIAOSHEDINGYAOHELI，FANGANJUYOUKEXINGXING，BUNENGYIQIPANDAITIYANPAN，YIMEIHAOYUANWANGDAITILIXINGFENXI，ZHIYOUZHEIYANGCAINENGZHENZHENGSHIXIANZHONGRIGUANXIDECHIXUWENDINGJIANKANGFAZHAN。

　　2020年5月13日，世界经济与政治研究所和社会科学文献出版社共同在线召开了《中国社会科学院国际形势报告（2020）》《中国对外关系（1978-2018）》发布会，暨全球疫情背景下的国际形势与中国外交研讨会。本文为中国社会科学院日本研究所所长杨伯江研究员在会上的发言，现经本人整理后发表。